Long Range Forecast: ‘The Post,’ ‘Proud Mary,’ ‘Paddington 2,’ ‘The Commuter, ‘Condorito’

Croak

This week’s Long Range Forecast welcomes a host of releases scheduled for Martin Luther King Jr. Weekend in January. Our initial analyses and forecasts:

PROS:

  • The Post will open in limited release in December as part of what is expected to be a strong award season candidacy. The powerhouse trio of director Steven Spielberg with stars Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks in a true journalistic drama about the Pentagon Papers cover-up is seemingly poised to become a ‘movie of the moment’ in light of current real world events.
  • Proud Mary will aim to leverage Taraji P. Henson’s considerable fan base into a solid performance over MLK weekend in a film that may also appeal to fans of female actioners like Atomic Blonde and Lucy.
  • Paddington 2 follows on the heels of 2015’s successful live action adaptation and has already garnered strong early reviews and an excellent debut in the United Kingdom. As 2018’s first major animated release — and the first since Ferdinand one month earlier — it should have room for another solid U.S. run.
  • The Commuter reunites Liam Neeson with director Jaume Collet-Serra after their success with Non-Stop and Unknown. The director is also fresh off last year’s The Shallows as his resume continues to build a string of mid-range hits driven by word of mouth.
  • Condorito: La Pelicula will hope to appeal to Latino families with young children over the extended holiday weekend.

CONS:

  • For all its prestige characteristics, The Post will still need to convince audiences that a journalistic drama is must-see material on the big screen after the modest box office run of 2015’s Best Picture winner, Spotlight. Some audience aversion to political divisiveness in the world today could also spillover into impacting broader moviegoer interests toward the film.
  • Proud Mary‘s early social media activity is mixed, though that isn’t surprising for a title whose marketing has barely begun. The modest run of Atomic Blonde also gives us pause on predicting an even larger breakout here for now.
  • In general, animated sequels expand upon their predecessors’ runs almost as often as the opposite occurs. If films like Ferdinand and Coco are still playing strongly come January, they could limit demand for Paddington 2.
  • Initial social media trends for The Commuter are well below past Neeson-led actioners, falling more in line with Jackie Chan’s The Foreigner at the same point before release. Meanwhile, competition for the adult audience will be stiff against The Post and other holiday holdovers.
  • Condorito hails from Lionsgate, whose animated projects have unfortunately yielded underwhelming results at the box office to date (see Rock DogThe Wild Life, and Norm of the North).

The 8-Week Forecast:

Release DateTitle3-Day Wide Opening% Chg from Last WeekDomestic Total% Chg from Last WeekLocation CountDistributor
11/22/2017Coco$60,000,000$270,000,0004,000Disney
11/22/2017The Man Who Invented Christmasn/an/an/aBleecker Street
11/22/2017Roman J. Israeln/an/a1,500Sony / Columbia
12/8/2017The Disaster Artistn/an/aA24
12/8/2017Just Getting Started$8,000,000$36,000,000Broad Green Pictures
12/15/2017Ferdinand$20,000,000$150,000,000Fox
12/15/2017Star Wars: The Last Jedi$215,000,000$742,000,000Disney
12/20/2017The Greatest Showman on Earth$11,000,000$75,000,000Fox
12/20/2017Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle$22,000,000$175,000,000Sony / Columbia
12/22/2017All the Money in the Worldn/an/aTriStar
12/22/2017Downsizing$10,000,000$59,000,000Paramount
12/22/2017Pitch Perfect 3$40,000,000$136,000,000Universal
12/22/2017Father Figures$7,000,000$41,000,000Warner Bros.
12/29/2017(no films scheduled currently)
1/5/2018Insidious: The Last Key$19,500,000$34,500,000Universal
1/5/2018Molly’s Game$6,000,000$21,000,000STXfilms
1/12/2018The Commuter$12,000,000NEW$31,000,000NEWLionsgate
1/12/2018Condorito: La Pelicula$5,000,000NEW$12,500,000NEWLionsgate
1/12/2018Paddington 2$19,000,000NEW$70,000,000NEWWarner Bros.
1/12/2018Proud Mary$17,000,000NEW$55,000,000NEWSony / Screen Gems
1/12/2018The Post (expansion)$20,000,000NEW$90,000,000NEWFox