Long Range Forecast: ‘Justice League,’ ‘The Star,’ ‘Wonder’

Croak

The fifth installment of Warner Bros.’ DC Extended Universe serves as the natural highlight among this week’s latest additions to the Long Range Forecast. Justice League won’t fly solo when debuts on November 17, though, as The Star and Wonder are also set to open that weekend in hopes of counter-programming against the superhero tentpole.

PROS:

  • Justice League (Warner Bros.) will unite key heroes from the DC universe with the promise of Batman, Wonder Woman, The Flash, Aquaman, Cyborg, and (presumably) Superman joining forces in their first film as a collective group. The previous DC universe films have generated major financial success thus far, although only Wonder Woman has enjoyed both box office supremacy and critical + audience adoration. The latter’s goodwill — on top of the fact that Batman is still one of the most bankable icons in film history — could allow some audiences to give League the benefit of the doubt. Fans are also very curious about what kind of influence Joss Whedon (The Avengers) will have had on the finished product since Zack Snyder stepped down during production following a family tragedy.
  • The Star (Sony / Columbia) will serve as this holiday season’s Christmas-centric animation with an eye toward faith-based audiences and families with young children. Having five days to itself before Pixar’s Coco opens will help it get a head start for what should be a leggy run through November and December.
  • Wonder (Lionsgate) should find a strong female audience on opening weekend as the film aims to parlay Raquel J. Palacio’s beloved 2012 dramatic children’s novel into cinematic success. Initial social media buzz is very encouraging as the film boasts over 234,000 Facebook fans before marketing has truly kicked in. This could be a sleeper to keep an eye on, especially if awards buzz follows.

CONS:

  • It’s no secret that Batman v Superman was received poorly by many fans, and that will be Justice League‘s biggest obstacle to overcome as the spiritual sequel to that film. In addition, opening in the third weekend of Marvel’s Thor: Ragnarok could present even more challenges since this is the shortest competitive window in which DC and Marvel tentpoles have attempted to compete within against each another. As such, reviews and early fan reactions will be crucial to Justice League‘s long term prospects.
  • The Star will ultimately be relying on word of mouth to manufacture a solid holiday run, something that could be moderately challenging with Coco opening five days later. Awareness is fairly low at this stage with little activity across Facebook and Twitter. As such, we’re expecting a run more in line with the likes of Arthur Christmas and Happy Feet Two at this time and some modest ability to co-exist with the Pixar film.
  • Wonder hasn’t generated much buzz among Twitter users recently, but that could easily change when marketing ramps up in early November.

This Week’s Notes & Other Changes

  • Recent marketing for The Mountain Between Us has livened up social media activity. Trends remain at about half the overall pace of last year’s The Girl on the Train, but Kate Winslet and Idris Elba should still provide solid appeal to adults.

The Long Range Forecast:

Release DateTitle3-Day Wide Opening% Chg from Last WeekDomestic Total% Chg from Last WeekLocation CountDistributor
9/29/2017American Made$16,000,000$54,000,0003,000Universal
9/29/2017Flatliners (2017)$12,000,000$29,000,0002,200Sony / Screen Gems
9/29/2017A Question of Faithn/an/an/aPure Flix
9/29/2017Til Death Do Us Partn/an/an/aNovus
10/6/2017Blade Runner 2049$44,000,000$115,000,0003,800Warner Bros.
10/6/2017The Mountain Between Us$11,500,00044%$36,000,00044%3,100Fox
10/6/2017My Little Pony (2017)$7,500,000$21,500,0002,100Lionsgate
10/13/2017The Foreigner$10,000,000$27,700,000STXfilms
10/13/2017Happy Death Day$20,000,000$40,000,000Universal / Blumhouse
10/13/2017Marshall$12,000,000$39,000,000Open Road
10/13/2017Professor Marston & the Wonder Womann/an/aAnnapurna Pictures
10/20/2017Geostorm$12,000,000$27,800,000Warner Bros.
10/20/2017Only the Brave$16,000,000$55,000,000Sony / Columbia
10/20/2017Same Kind of Different As Me$4,500,000$12,000,000Pure Flix
10/20/2017The Snowman$11,000,000$31,000,000Universal
10/20/2017Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween$23,500,000$59,300,000Lionsgate
10/27/2017Jigsaw$10,000,000$21,600,000Lionsgate
10/27/2017Suburbicon$14,000,000$45,000,000Paramount
10/27/2017Thank You for Your Service$5,000,000$17,500,000Universal
11/1/2017A Bad Moms Christmas$22,000,000$85,000,000STXfilms
11/3/2017Thor: Ragnarok$100,000,000$250,000,000Disney
11/10/2017Daddy’s Home 2$30,000,000$95,000,000Paramount
11/10/2017Murder on the Orient Express$23,500,000$84,600,000Fox
11/17/2017Justice League$150,000,000NEW$330,000,000NEWWarner Bros.
11/17/2017The Star$13,000,000NEW$60,000,000NEWSony / Columbia
11/17/2017Wonder$16,000,000NEW$60,000,000NEWLionsgate